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Economic Impact Study: March 2026

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New Economic Study Reveals Ongoing Impact of Flood on Local Business Community

KERRVILLE, TX – March 18, 2026 – The Kerr Together Long-Term Recovery Group today released preliminary findings from an economic impact analysis. This analysis provides critical data on the continuing effects of the July 2025 floods on the local economy. The study, conducted by Texas A&M University’s Hazard Reduction & Recovery Center, underscores how accurate data helps communities understand disaster impacts and make informed decisions to rebuild lives and businesses.

Key Findings

The analysis reveals the local business community continues to face significant challenges, now seven months past the July 2025 flood event. Some key findings from the preliminary report include: 

  • Flooding damage was extreme for the area, with a high percentage of impacted businesses receiving major or destroyed status according to FEMA damage assessments.
  • Businesses with physical damage from the flood are more likely to report being currently closed in early 2026.
  • Many damaged businesses are located outside of the 100-year flood zone, meaning they did not have flood insurance and flood events are not covered by property insurance. Business owners are having to use personal savings, grants or loans to repair and recover.
  • Two-thirds of businesses report ongoing impacts from the flooding, including over half of businesses that are fully open.
  • Data from state or federal sources do not capture the full impact of the floods on local businesses, whereas the business surveys conducted by Kerr Together show ongoing issues related to damage, customer loss, and revenue impacts. 
  • Hotel and overnight visits data show minimal impact in the fall of 2025, but survey data indicates fewer customers/clients across business types. This result is likely due to recovery and rebuilding workers and volunteers staying in hotels, but not spending as a tourist would. 
  • It is currently unclear how operational the youth camps will be for the coming summer. Estimated losses in the number of campers could translate to between 97-185 job losses, and tourism declines could result in an additional 36-144 job losses in Kerr County alone. As summer approaches more information is needed on capacity and enrollment at the summer camps to understand full impacts. 
  • Business recovery is still ongoing, and will be for a while longer. Businesses indicate that 2026 would need to be incredibly strong to make up for lost revenue in the late summer and fall of 2025. Many businesses have tried to retain staff by reducing their hours, however it is unclear how long local businesses will be able to sustain current employment levels.

The Power of Data-Driven Recovery

“Good data is essential for understanding the true scope of disaster impacts and making the right moves to put lives and businesses back together,” said Chris Hughes, Business Recovery Working Group Co-Chair for Kerr Together. “This analysis provides the evidence our community needs to target recovery resources effectively and advocate for the support we need for a complete recovery.”

The study utilized multiple data sources, including TDEM damage assessments, business surveys, employment statistics, and economic modeling through IMPLAN software to calculate direct, indirect, and induced economic impacts across multiple sectors.


Looking Forward

The analysis supports the reality that recovery is, and will remain, a long-term process. With the majority of affected businesses lacking insurance and facing substantial reconstruction costs, the community will require sustained support through loans, grants, and technical assistance programs.

The study also highlights the interconnected nature of the local economy, where impacts to summer camps and tourism create ripple effects throughout retail, food service, construction, and other supporting industries that employ thousands of Kerr County residents.

About the Study

The Economic Impact Analysis was prepared by Drs. Laura Schmahmann and Michelle Meyer with the Hazard Reduction & Recovery Center in the Department of Landscape Architecture & Urban Planning at Texas A&M University. The analysis examined both direct disaster impacts (building damage) and indirect impacts (job losses, business closures, unemployment increases) using public data and surveys from 202 local businesses.

For more information about recovery resources and support services, visit KerrTogether.com or visit the Kerr Together Disaster Relief Center at 98 Coronado Drive in Kerrville. 

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